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CANADA
Canada’s economy has suffered as much as that of the United States, with some post-September 11 problems, but it continues to be strong. The Toronto Stock exchange is still strong. The Bank of Montreal expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2002, 3.5 per cent in the second quarter and 3-4 per cent in the second half of the year. The Bank forecasts annual growth of 2.25-3.25 per cent in 2002 and 3–4 per cent in 2003. The Bank believes inflation will remain benign. It expects core CPI inflation to "average just under 2 per cent" in the year ahead due to the modest amount of slack in the economy, and to stabilise at the 2 per cent target midpoint by the end of 2003. Current unemployment rates are 7.7 per cent, with Quebec leading employment growth, followed by Ontario and British Columbia, according to Statistics Canada, the country's national statistical agency.
The Canadian Council of Human Resource Associations (CCHRA) reports considerable progress towards the finalisation of its initiative to establish national standards for HR professionals; these should be in place by the end of this year.
CCHRA membership, currently representing 23,000 people, has grown by 12 per cent with the growth more or less equal across the country. The Association has just welcomed a new member organisation from New Brunswick. One Territory and the two remaining Provinces (Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland) are expressing interesting joining; if admitted, that would mean that all Provinces would be represented.
CCHRA expressed that it is very pleased to be part of NAHRMA again and looks forward to a growing relationship between the member NAHRMA associations.
MEXICO
Mexico started its recession phase in October 2000 (six months before the United States) and most economists expect it to last at least through mid-2002. This means that the recovery for Mexico is not yet in sight and the economy will suffer negative growth rates during the next one to three quarters. This explains the sharp downward revision in the consensus forecast, from 3.7 to 1.3 per cent for 2002.
In the past, Mexico’s recessions have been accompanied by bouts of instability. This time, however, the business cycle downturn is characterised by declining inflation, low interest rates and a very strong exchange rate. Nothing in the forecast suggests that this stability will be interrupted or affected.
In 2002 the economic scenario was determined mainly by deceleration of world economy, particularly the US economy, high volatility on international prices, and uncertainty after the September 11th attacks.
Unemployment rose sharply from 2.49 per cent in September to 2.93 per cent in October. The October unemployment rate was well above market expectations in the Latin Focus Consensus Forecast. The strong increase in unemployment indicates a further weakening of the economy as the economic slump broadens across all sectors.
While the Mexican economy now exhibits a much more solid macroeconomic framework than in the past, any marked recovery will remain absent until the US economy rebounds.
AMEDIRH activities 2002
In addition to AMEDIRH offices in Monterrey, the association has started to provide services to corporations in Torreon, Coahuila. In addition, it has established a mutual collaboration agreement with the local association of Queretaro City.
This year AMEDIRH, together with some consultancies, began to offer courses and workshops as the start of a certification programme in compensation systems.
Organising the 9th World Human Resources Congress has been an excellent opportunity to broaden AMEDIRH’s international contacts with member associations of the World Federation and other organisations around the world.
COMARI activities 2002
From March 2001 to date COMARI membership grew 21 per cent (from 33 to 40 associations), and now covers all regions of the Mexican Republic with the exceptions of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Colima where industrial activity is too small.
COMARI associations provide members with monthly technical workshops. To support and keep members updated, COMARI continues to notify them of HR best practice as well as labour regulation changes, wages and salaries information and
collective bargaining statistics.
COMARI postponed its annual National HR Congress and other workshops in an effort to provide support to the organisers of the 2002 World Congress and is working in collaboration with AMEDIRH to ensure the success of the event.
This year COMARI was invited by the Mexican Government to participate in a project to develop labour regulations for physically impaired workers; and also to participate on the Consultative Labour Board chaired by Mexico Secretary of Labour, Lic. Carlos Abascal Carranza.
USA
Leading indicators show that the US economy is recovering from its recent mild recession. Improved consumer expending is exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate, although higher than a year ago at 5.7 per cent, is still historically low. Deflation in 2001 has created low inflation which in February was 0.2 per cent for an expected annual rate of 1.1 per cent. Interest rates were cut 11 times in 2001 in an effort to stimulate the economy and they have changed little in 2002; they are expected to remain at the current level through June.
In February SHRM announced the appointment of its new President and CEO, Susan R. Meisinger, who had held the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at SHRM since 1999. She served as Senior Vice President from 1997-1999 and Vice President of Government and Public Affairs from 1987-1997.
Current SHRM membership stands at more than 165,000 individuals, with more than 500 affiliated chapters within the US and members in more than 120 countries.
In 2001 the Society conducted the first phase of a three-part study on the The Future of the HR Profession. The study was developed to document over a two-year period perspectives on the changing nature of the HR profession. Phase one represents perspectives from management consultants working with HR professionals; phase two will cover HR executives at leading companies throughout the US; and phase three participants will be educators, researchers and business advisers working in academic settings and recognised for their work concerning HR and its organisational role.
The results of the first phase of the study indicate a clear consensus that there are two primary drivers of change in HR: technology and talent management. Specifically, continuous innovation in technology will fundamentally change the way HR work is accomplished. One of the most important catalysts for change is employee-self-service through web-based portals. Further, talent management will become a critical priority for businesses and the strategic purpose of HR’s future role within the organisation. While talent management has always been part of HR’s mission, a combination of demographic and market forces will bring new urgency to cultivating a workforce that offers true competitive advantage.
Among the key environmental factors identified as having an impact on HR work are: demographics - an aging population, coupled with a shortage of qualified talent; technology - the workforce will grow increasingly less traditional and be ‘distributed’ on a national and global basis making it increasingly more difficult to connect employees to the goals of the company; economics – relentless pressure for profitability will propel organisational change through continued mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances; and globalisation - growth of the world economy will create new competitors, new labour markets and require more sophisticated skills in managing and operating global businesses.
NAHRMA NEWS
Following recent elections, the new NAHRMA Board is as follows:
President – Carolyn Gould
Past President – Alex Rojas
Vice President – Canada (to be elected at June meeting of CCHRA)
Secretary/Treasurer – Hector Palacios
Canadian delegates – Florent Francoeur and Ian Turnbull, pending new elections
Mexican delegates – German Suarez and Fernando Yedra
US delegates – Rita Bennett and Brian Glade
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